Brynn Anderson/Associated Press
There has been an even split between blowouts and close games in the six years of the College Football Playoff National Championship.
The past two title games were won by the Clemson Tigers and LSU Tigers in dominant fashion. The last close final was three years ago, when the Alabama Crimson Tide rode Tua Tagovailoa to a come-from-behind win over the Georgia Bulldogs.
Even though the spread grew from 7.5 points to nine in the week preceding the game, Monday’s clash between Alabama and the Ohio State Buckeyes is expected to be a tight affair. Ohio State is one of the few teams that can match Alabama’s offensive production when it is at its best, and that is reflected in the over/under of 75 points.
Both teams are capable of putting up eye-popping numbers inside Hard Rock Stadium, but only one of the six playoff-era championship games had more than 75 points.
National Championship Odds Guide
Spread: Alabama (-9)
Alabama is not used to being a single-digit favorite this season.
The Crimson Tide were favored by 10 or more points in eight consecutive games leading into the national championship.
The last time Nick Saban’s team was projected to win by a single-digit margin was the top-five clash with the Georgia Bulldogs on October 18.
Alabama covered six of the past eight double-digit spreads, but it was not on the right side of the spread in the SEC Championship Game and Rose Bowl. The Florida Gators remained within one score, and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish earned a backdoor cover with a late touchdown.
Ohio State is an underdog for the second time this season. They won outright as a seven-point underdog against Clemson in the Sugar Bowl.
The Buckeyes appear to be in good shape to cover based off Alabama’s four previous trips to the CFP National Championship. Three of Alabama’s four playoff final appearances were decided by one score. The lone exception was the blowout loss it suffered to Clemson in 2019.
In the first two Alabama-Clemson finals, Deshaun Watson put up a combined 75 points on the Crimson Tide defense.
On Monday, another potential first-round pick, Justin Fields, has the capability to produce a large point total and even lead Ohio State to a victory. Fields led the Buckeyes to 43.4 points per game in 2020, while Alabama averaged 48.2 points per game. If you apply the spread to those totals, the Buckeyes would cover comfortably.
The final decision on a spread bet should come down to your belief in Fields to keep the game close.
Alabama proved all season that it can score at will through Mac Jones, Najee Harris and Heisman winner DeVonta Smith, and none of the top-10 teams it faced were able to slow them down.
If Fields works the ball around the field to Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson and receives some contributions from running back Trey Sermon, the Buckeyes could have an offensive mix that keeps Alabama off balance and allows them to stay in the game.
Over/Under: 75
In theory, the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes could get into a back-and-forth battle that involves plenty of quick scores.
However, it is hard for two teams to combine for 75 points in a national championship game wherein there are some elite defensive players on both squads.
Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II and Ohio State’s Shaun Wade will attempt to slow down Olave and Smith, respectively, or any other wideout who lines up across from them.
The over could also be affected by the push earned by the interior linemen. Ohio State achieved more success with that in the Sugar Bowl, as it held Travis Etienne to 32 rushing yards.
If the Buckeyes slow down Harris on a few drives, it could put Alabama into long-yardage downs. Even one or two punts out of those situations could hurt the over.
In the lone CFB Playoff final to eclipse 75 points, Alabama and Clemson combined for 40 fourth-quarter points. The last punt in the game occurred with 14 minutes left. Even that game needed an offensive explosion to finish with a high total. Alabama only scored seven points in each of the first three frames, and Clemson was shut out in the second quarter.
The slightest dip in offensive production could hurt the potential for the over to hit Monday. Since both defenses conceded an average of 21 points or fewer per game this year, there will likely be a few punts.
CFP National Championship history suggests the under will hit in this contest, but with the abundance of offensive talent on each roster, there is a chance Monday’s game becomes the second-highest scoring title clash of the playoff era—or even eclipses the first Alabama-Clemson game.
Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. Statistics obtained from ESPN.com.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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